Chances Of Us Recession In 2024. The us may be on the brink of a recession, with the sahm rule triggered by rising unemployment and an inverted treasury yield curve. Aug 31, 2024, 8:42 am pdt.
The research of the federal reserve bank of new york, currently puts the probability of a u.s. She thinks thereโs a 65% chance of a mild recession in 2024 and predicts the unemployment rate will rise to 5% by the third quarter.